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December 1917 to March 1918, Brest-Litovsk and Petrograd • Iran's 14-point counter-proposal to the US ceasefire offer (2 May 2026) attempts the maximalist diplomatic gambit Trotsky tried at Brest-Litovsk in February 1918.

No War, No Peace

Brest-Litovsk, February 1918. Tehran, May 2026. The same gambit, in two languages.

November 1956 to January 1957, London and Washington • US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth orders 5,000 US troops out of Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticises US strategy in the Iran war.

When Eisenhower Sold the Pound

London, November 1956. Berlin, May 2026. The same lever, in two languages.

1959-1976 Caracas, Cairo, Baghdad • UAE leaves OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May 2026 after 59 years of membership.

The Father of OPEC and the Devil's Excrement

Caracas, 1959. Abu Dhabi, 2026. The same telegram, in reverse.

1878-79 Imperial Germany • EU doubles steel tariffs to 50% and halves quotas to curb Chinese imports.

The Marriage of Iron and Rye

Berlin, March 1878. Brussels, April 2026. The same letter.

421-415 BC ancient Greece • Colombia's Total Peace policy collapses into pre-election violence in late April 2026

The Truce That Bought Time

In 421 BC Athens and Sparta agreed a peace that was supposed to last fifty years. It lasted eighteen months. The breathing room was used by both sides to make their next war worse. This week, eight years into a different total peace, dozens of bombings preceded a presidential election in Colombia.

1939-1941 United States and the United Kingdom • King Charles III's April 2026 state visit during US-UK strain over the Iran war

The King at the Picnic

In June 1939 a British king ate his first hot dog at Hyde Park, three months before the world went to war. This week, his grandson is in Washington at another moment when London and Washington need to be photographed liking each other.

1071-1080 Byzantine Anatolia • JNIM-FLA coalition seizes Mali cities as Russian Africa Corps mercenaries withdraw under escort

The Day the Mercenaries Walked Off

In August 1071 the Byzantine emperor brought a polyglot army to defend Anatolia. The hired half walked away the night before the battle. The empire never recovered. This week, a similar exit happened on a different continent.

1507-1622 Persian Gulf • Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz draws three US aircraft carriers to the Middle East

The Strait That Changed Hands

Four hundred and four years ago this week, a Persian shah hired a Western fleet to break a Western tollkeeper's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is in the news again.

1807-1809 United States • US naval blockade of Iranian ports during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis

The Peaceable Coercion

In 1807, a president tried to bring an empire to heel without firing a shot. It wrecked his own country first.

Elizabethan England, 1577-1588 • EU frozen Russian assets funding Ukraine's €90B defence loan

Spain Paid for the Fleet That Destroyed It

In 1579, Drake stole Spain's gold and Elizabeth used it to build the navy that defeated the Armada. In 2026, the EU is using Russia's frozen assets to fund Ukraine's war.